Filtering What Matters

I've reflected that in recent years I underestimated the time it would take for certain technologies and associated business models I've been involved with (open-source; social software) to "happen" by maybe five years.  To help me better calibrate my estimates and figure out what to pay attention to, I've designed a simple test to apply to any "new new thing".  It has four considerations:

1. covered in mainstream business publications
2. significant, mainstream users (not vendors) quoted
3. no new infrastructure required for deployment
4. no significant behavioral change required for adoption

I'm starting by figuring that there's a year of acceleration associated with each of these, off a baseline assumption of five years out for anything I'm hearing about.  So if all four apply to any particular "new new thing", I've got a year at best before the "thing" becomes a basic expectation rather than an advantage.

 

It's also the case that the fewer of these that apply, the lower the likelihood of the "thing" being successful.  maybe a linear 25% hit for each failed consideration, for a near-zero likelihood if none of the four are met.

 

Let's apply this test:

1. Blogs pass all four.  Pay attention now.
2. Podcasts fail the second, though now that Apple's iTunes v4.9 incorporates the ability to subscribe to feeds, that will improve. Also, podcasts fail the third, since it's still a little bit of a pain to publish them, and they can be storage and bandwidth hogs.  But adoption will accelerate, once someone figures out that listening to podcasts is a more productive way for employees to spend drive time than, say, Howard Stern, or (my guilty pleasure) sports talk radio.  Couple years still to status as "part of the furniture".  Still, worth fooling around with.
3. Games as a central medium for promotion:  only the third condition is satisfied at the moment, though IMHO this will be very big, especially as the youngest demographic grows up.  Three years, but start playing now.

We'll push this further (considerations, calibrations, examples).  Let us know if this seems useful to you, and what your observations suggest.

 

Comments

[Perry Hewitt]

Research released this week from Pew Internet supports your bullish stance on games, and may even pass your condition #2 as these teenagers become young adults in the workforce.

http://www.pewinternet.org/report_display.asp?r=162

- P